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CD7 Special Election: Can the GOP Make Inroads in Deep Blue Territory?

Daniel Butierez talks turnout, priorities, and uphill odds as Republicans aim to prove relevance in one of Arizona’s safest Democrat seats.

In an interview with State 48’s Christy Kelly, Republican candidate Daniel Butierez previews the July 15 special primary for Arizona’s 7th Congressional District seat, vacated by the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva. As one of three GOP contenders, alongside Jorge Rivas and Jimmy Rodriguez—Butierez lays out his vision for the district and positions himself as the conservative alternative in a region that has historically leaned heavily Democratic.

During the conversation, Kelly presses Butierez on several key fronts: why he’s running again after his loss in the 2024 general election, how his priorities for CD7 are shaped by his own life experiences, and whether low turnout in the general election could give Republicans a narrow path to a surprise upset in a deep-blue district. With most national observers viewing the general as a foregone conclusion, the GOP primary becomes more than an internal contest—it is a chance to test the resonance of conservative messaging in southern Arizona and to see whether Republicans can build any momentum in a part of the state long dominated by Democrats.

Butierez currently leads the GOP field in fundraising, having raised approximately $180,000, most of which came from candidate-secured loans. He reports about $98,000 in cash-on-hand, far outpacing primary opponents Jorge Rivas and Jimmy Rodriguez. Despite multiple attempts, Rivas did not respond to State 48’s invitation to participate in an interview.

On the Democratic side, frontrunners Daniel Hernández Jr. and Adelita Grijalva are each approaching the $1 million mark in total fundraising, allowing them to maintain a strong ground game and voter outreach operation. Deja Foxx, while trailing behind the top two, has raised roughly $600,000 and maintains around $100,000 in cash-on-hand—still a competitive sum that keeps her viable heading into the final stretch.

Altogether, more than $3.4 million has already poured into the CD7 special election, an extraordinary total for a summer race.

With the primary set for July 15 and the general election on September 23, all eyes now turn to turnout and momentum. While CD‑7 remains a stalwart blue district, low participation and a well-executed GOP ground game could narrow the gap. Still, most political pundits believe barring a seismic shift, this race is shaping up to reaffirm the district’s Democratic lean—making this summer’s showdown more about influence and message than an actual flip.

Last week, State Rep. Rachel Keshel (Capt. Seth’s “better half”) sounded the alarm on potential ballot harvesting in Arizona’s CD7. Her letter to the Attorney General outlines serious concerns about election integrity ahead of the special election.

You can read the full breakdown in

latest newsletter, linked below.

Captain K's Corner
BREAKING: Likely Discovery of New Ballot Harvesting Operation in Southern Arizona
Yesterday, Arizona State Representative Rachel Keshel (LD-17), my better half, filed a complaint to the Attorney General, Kris Mayes, over potentially illegal election activities by Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA) on behalf of AZ-7 Democrat congressional candidate Adelita Grijalva, the daughter of the recently deceased Rep. Raul Grijalva…
Read more

The

put together a fantastic preview of the Democrats running in CD7—complete with interviews and insights that give readers a real sense of who’s in the race and what’s at stake. It’s a must-read if you want to understand the dynamics on the other side of the aisle. Catch the full newsletter here:

Arizona Agenda
Your ballot is coming
Ballots are in the mail for the biggest election of the year — the special election to fill Raúl Grijalva’s seat in Southern Arizona’s sprawling Congressional District 7…
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